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China Will Soon Out Produce United States

Published 08/13/08 Craig Harrington - Print Article
E-mail - editor@economyincisis.org

It is already well-known that China has a large economy which has seen meteoric growth during the past decade. But, it may come as a surprise that by as early as 2009, the Chinese may produce more manufactured goods than the United States, according to MarketWatch.

There are many reasons for the repositioning of the two economic superpowers, the most basic being that “growth in the U.S. economy has essentially been zero over the last year and will continue to struggle over the next year,” said Nariman Behravesh of Global Insight.

The United States has found it difficult to keep manufacturing jobs from going overseas, and has seen entire industries move toward major layoffs. The Chinese have experienced no such difficulties in their state-run industries.

The United States still maintains a significant lead over China in service sector employment, which accounts for the majority of domestic GDP in the U.S. as well as overall worldwide GDP. Manufacturing accounts for only 17 percent of worldwide GDP, and only 12.5 percent in the U.S., while service sector jobs take up 65 percent of worldwide production.

We may maintain a significant lead in service sector jobs, but it is impossible to assume that such a lead will last. After all, the United States was once a bastion of cheap labor and production just as China is today. However as more money became available for Americans and the middle-class developed, the nation moved toward more “white collar” work. If it were to follow a similar path, China – 1.3 billion strong, and counting – could logically have the manpower and resource base to become an economic superpower unlike any other.

The United States and China are similar in landmass and natural resource makeup, and have well-established trading networks, but the sheer massiveness of China may be its greatest strength. The United States has less than one quarter of China’s population, the only way to stay ahead is by technological innovation. The United States had to work hard to achieve its status as a world leader, and it will take even more dedication and perseverance to maintain that position.


Source MarketWatch:

China is forecast to surpass the United States as the world's leading manufacturer in nominal dollar terms next year, earlier than expected, as the U.S. economy slows down and China's continues to grow at unprecedented rates, according to consulting firm Global Insight.

The nominal value of U.S. manufacturing weakened somewhat sharply in 2007, and despite the outlook for modest recovery in the coming years, China will likely gain the largest share in global manufacturing as early as 2009, Global Insight said in a report released Tuesday.

Measured in real value-added terms, China's share in global manufacturing is forecast to overtake that of the U.S. by 2016-2017, boosted by rapid gains in market share of textiles, basic metals, computer equipment and mineral product manufacturing, according to Global Insight.

Global manufacturing on a value-added basis, estimated at $8.8 trillion in 2007, is forecast to grow another $7.0 trillion by 2015, with China accounting for $2.9 trillion of that growth, according to Global Insight.


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